07/25/2025 BMW BERLIN-MARATHON

Realistic Marathon Times: the 10K Test as a Benchmark two Months before Race Day

When preparing for a marathon, one big question eventually comes up: What goal time is realistic? Two months before the BMW BERLIN-MARATHON, a 10K race—like the adidas Runners City Night — can provide a valuable assessment of your current fitness level. Sports scientist Angela Hänsel (SCC EVENTS) explains how to use this to determine a realistic marathon goal time.

^{Many runners use the adidas Runners City Night to optimize their marathon training. @ SCC EVENTS}

BMW BERLIN-MARATHON in sight: Two months before is the right time

If you’re running the BMW BERLIN-MARATHON on September 21, you should assess your current form by July at the latest. A 10K race is ideal for this. For those training in or near Berlin, the adidas Runners City Night is a great option. If you're not local, you can do the test on your own — on a measured course or using a GPS watch under race-like conditions.

“A 10K test two months before the marathon is a valuable indicator—not just for your marathon time, but also for training focus.”
Angela Hänsel, sports scientist (SCC EVENTS Medical Team) and former elite athlete)

Why 10 Kilometers?

A 10K race is intense enough to measure your fitness level, but short enough not to risk overtraining. Especially important: a 10K challenges your anaerobic system far more than a marathon does. In other words, during a 10K, you'll run at an intensity where your oxygen demand temporarily exceeds what your body can supply.

In contrast, the marathon primarily relies on aerobic energy — long-lasting, efficient and based on fat metabolism.

Despite the physiological differences, a 10K test still shows how efficient your cardiovascular system is overall — which forms the basis for all training paces in marathon prep. At this point, two months out, you’ll usually have a solid base and enough time to fine-tune your speed, endurance and race tactics.

So, the test not only helps predict your marathon time, but also reveals where to focus your training.

From 10K to 42.195K – Predicting a realistic marathon pace

There are several tools and formulas to estimate your marathon pace — like the Riegel formula or pace charts. These give you a general idea but must always be interpreted in context: your endurance, training history and structure all matter.

10K Time	Estimated Marathon Time	Notes
50 minutes	~3:55–4:05 hours	Only achievable with regular long runs and structured tempo work
60 minutes	~4:50–5:00 hours	Solid endurance base needed, tempo training helps maintain pace
70 minutes	~5:45–6:00 hours	Goal: Finish healthy – plan for nutrition and walking breaks

Caution: Endurance still plays a major role

These estimates assume ideal conditions. In reality, marathon performance also depends heavily on:

Aerobic capacity (fat metabolism, running efficiency)
Smart pacing
Mental resilience

Common pitfalls:

Fast over short distances, but lack long runs → play it safe with goals
Strong endurance, low top speed → prediction often quite accurate
First-time marathon runner → add a 5–10 minute buffer

How to get the most Out of your 10K Test

Choose the right race: Officially measured, flat and wind-protected course.
Give full effort: Only with maximum intensity will the test deliver meaningful data.
Plan timing wisely: At least 48 hours after hard workouts, allow 3–5 days of recovery afterward.

Using your projected time as a training compass

A well-chosen marathon goal time doesn’t just help on race day — it also structures your training. That doesn’t mean running at marathon pace all the time. Instead, build key sessions around it:

Intervals: e.g., 5 × 1,000 m at your 10K race pace
Threshold runs: e.g., 6–8k at half-marathon pace
Marathon pace practice: e.g., include 1,000 m at marathon pace at the end of a long run

Conclusion: Think smart, run with heart

Numbers are helpful guides — but they don’t tell the whole story. A 10K test helps you plan a realistic marathon time. But in the end, it’s you, not your calculator, running the marathon.