Realistic Marathon Times: the 10K Test as a Benchmark two Months before Race Day
When preparing for a marathon, one big question eventually comes up: What goal time is realistic? Two months before the BMW BERLIN-MARATHON, a 10K race—like the adidas Runners City Night — can provide a valuable assessment of your current fitness level. Sports scientist Angela Hänsel (SCC EVENTS) explains how to use this to determine a realistic marathon goal time.
Many runners use the adidas Runners City Night to optimize their marathon training. @ SCC EVENTS
BMW BERLIN-MARATHON in sight: Two months before is the right time
If you’re running the BMW BERLIN-MARATHON on September 21, you should assess your current form by July at the latest. A 10K race is ideal for this. For those training in or near Berlin, the adidas Runners City Night is a great option. If you're not local, you can do the test on your own — on a measured course or using a GPS watch under race-like conditions.
“A 10K test two months before the marathon is a valuable indicator—not just for your marathon time, but also for training focus.”
Angela Hänsel, sports scientist (SCC EVENTS Medical Team) and former elite athlete)
Why 10 Kilometers?
A 10K race is intense enough to measure your fitness level, but short enough not to risk overtraining. Especially important: a 10K challenges your anaerobic system far more than a marathon does. In other words, during a 10K, you'll run at an intensity where your oxygen demand temporarily exceeds what your body can supply.
In contrast, the marathon primarily relies on aerobic energy — long-lasting, efficient and based on fat metabolism.
Despite the physiological differences, a 10K test still shows how efficient your cardiovascular system is overall — which forms the basis for all training paces in marathon prep. At this point, two months out, you’ll usually have a solid base and enough time to fine-tune your speed, endurance and race tactics.
So, the test not only helps predict your marathon time, but also reveals where to focus your training.
From 10K to 42.195K – Predicting a realistic marathon pace
There are several tools and formulas to estimate your marathon pace — like the Riegel formula or pace charts. These give you a general idea but must always be interpreted in context: your endurance, training history and structure all matter.
10K Time | Estimated Marathon Time | Notes |
|---|---|---|
50 minutes | ~3:55–4:05 hours | Only achievable with regular long runs and structured tempo work |
60 minutes | ~4:50–5:00 hours | Solid endurance base needed, tempo training helps maintain pace |
70 minutes | ~5:45–6:00 hours | Goal: Finish healthy – plan for nutrition and walking breaks |
Caution: Endurance still plays a major role
These estimates assume ideal conditions. In reality, marathon performance also depends heavily on:
- Aerobic capacity (fat metabolism, running efficiency)
- Smart pacing
- Mental resilience
Common pitfalls:
- Fast over short distances, but lack long runs → play it safe with goals
- Strong endurance, low top speed → prediction often quite accurate
- First-time marathon runner → add a 5–10 minute buffer
How to get the most Out of your 10K Test
- Choose the right race: Officially measured, flat and wind-protected course.
- Give full effort: Only with maximum intensity will the test deliver meaningful data.
- Plan timing wisely: At least 48 hours after hard workouts, allow 3–5 days of recovery afterward.
Using your projected time as a training compass
A well-chosen marathon goal time doesn’t just help on race day — it also structures your training. That doesn’t mean running at marathon pace all the time. Instead, build key sessions around it:
- Intervals: e.g., 5 × 1,000 m at your 10K race pace
- Threshold runs: e.g., 6–8k at half-marathon pace
- Marathon pace practice: e.g., include 1,000 m at marathon pace at the end of a long run
Conclusion: Think smart, run with heart
Numbers are helpful guides — but they don’t tell the whole story. A 10K test helps you plan a realistic marathon time. But in the end, it’s you, not your calculator, running the marathon.
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